September 8, 2021 –
109,295.
That was the announced attendance at the University of Michigan’s home football opener on Saturday against Western Michigan University. Public address announcer Carl Grapentine proudly proclaimed it the “largest crowd attending any game in America today.”
This turnout was for a team that won only two games last year.
For a time on Saturday afternoon, the Covid pandemic and the Delta variant seemed a faint memory. The tailgates, the band, and being with 109,000 of your closest friends made it seem almost normal. That, except for the requirement at our tailgate, that all attendees attest to being vaccinated.
Saturday’s experience vividly illustrates our current circumstance with the pandemic in the United States. We desperately seek a return to time-honored traditions, to a sense of normalcy. Yet, the lingering Covid surge makes us wary and forces us to consider steps to mitigate our risk.
It similarly reflects the crossroads at which we now stand. The Delta variant battered the country for two months. We have been expecting the wave to crest at any time, and it did, just before game time. The 7-day average new case rate peaked on Thursday, capping a string of seventy-three straight days of higher rates.
Other data support the view that new cases have peaked. First, proportionally fewer Covid tests return positive results each day, a pattern that commenced a week ago.
Second, fewer new Covid patients are being admitted to hospitals each day. The daily census of Covid patients dropped every day thus far in September.
Tragically, deaths with Covid are rising. In the last week, 1,300 people died with Covid each day last week. We hope this trend will reverse itself as new infections wane.
Despite a changing tide, we are at a crossroads, as stated above. Like the victorious Michigan football team cannot proclaim a return to glory, we cannot presume that the country can now anticipate a long-term decline in new infections.
One game, and one day at a time. Michigan’s schedule gets more demanding, beginning this week when the University of Washington visits Ann Arbor. Games with Wisconsin, Michigan State, Penn State, Indiana, and Ohio State – teams that beat the Wolverines last year – lie ahead.
Our future schedule against the pandemic includes a return to the classroom, cooler temperatures, and increased indoor activities. Facing these foes a year ago, we fared no better than Michigan did against its Big Ten opponents last Fall. We lost embarrassingly. From mid-September 2020 to early January 2021, new daily cases increased by 700%.
Are we better prepared this Fall than last? Back then, vaccinations were not available. Today, 82 percent of senior citizens and 60 percent of non-senior adults are immunized. Despite breakthrough infections, vaccinations provide excellent protection against the virus. According to recent clinical studies, vaccination lowers the risk of infection by 5x and hospitalization by 29x.
A year ago, we were coming off a period of relatively few infections. Perhaps our guard was down, allowing the virus to spread quickly. Coming off the Delta surge this time, maybe, just maybe, we will be a bit more diligent.
Will the cresting of the Delta wave lead to a sustained period of lower infections? Or will the return to school and indoor activities trigger another surge similar to last Fall’s? Only time will tell.
Contributing writer:
Mark A. Van Sumeren, strategic advisor, Medical Devices & Integrated Delivery Networks
Health Industry Advisor LLC, provides a regular report on COVID-19 numbers for the health care industry.
For more information, or to sign up for the report, contact Mark at Mark.VanSumeren@HealthIndustryAdvisor.com; or visit www.HealthIndustryAdvisor.com.