By Curtis Rooney
The 114th Congress was sworn in Jan. 6, 2015, yet hardly anyone felt as though a new day had dawned in Washington. Why? Well, as a Gallup survey found last November, only 9 percent of Americans approved of the 113th Congress.
The Pew Research Center notes that the 113th Congress was not only the least popular, it was also the least productive in recent history, passing a paltry 142 public laws. The 112th Congress, by way of contrast, passed 284 public laws, while the 111th Congress passed 385. By way of contrast. the 80th Congress, which President Truman called the “do-nothing Congress,” had passed 395 bills by the end of 1947.
Suffice to say, the abysmal track record of the 113th Congress may help explain the lack of optimism for legislative accomplishments in the 114th.
Majority rule
Handily winning the elections in November, Republicans now control a majority in both chambers of Congress. In the House of Representatives, the GOP picked up 22 seats for a total of 247 seats (compared to 188 held by Democrats), their largest majority since 1928. In the Senate, Republicans netted nine seats and hold a total of 54, compared to the 44 Democratic seats, plus two Independents who caucus with them.
With such strong majorities, it’s tempting to think the GOP will have an easy time passing their agenda. There are signs, however, that this is far from the case.
For one, how will Republican Congressional leadership control its conservative wing? By opening day there were already 25 Republicans voting against John Boehner (R-Ohio) for his reelection as Speaker of the House. In addition, several representatives left the Republican Study Committee because it was not conservative enough, deciding instead to form their own “invitation-only” conservative caucus in an effort to push Boehner to the right.
The upper chamber isn’t much different. Some of the more conservative senators intimated they will not support incremental healthcare “fix” legislation because they believe repeal of the Affordable Care Act is the only appropriate course of action. Without the solid support from his caucus, Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) would need to look for help across the aisle to offset any potential losses if he hopes to get the 60 votes required to end debate or the 67 votes necessary to overcome a veto. Reaching across the aisle could further alienate the conservative senators, and perhaps even drive more moderate Republicans away from a consensus.
Dates that could be an opening
How this will all play out is not entirely certain, but even an inactive Congress will still face some key pressure points on enacting legislation. As a general rule, Congress tends to act only when faced with a deadline. With this in mind, the following dates could offer some window for action:
- 15: ACA open enrollment ends
- 27: Department of Homeland Security continuing resolution expires
- March 15: Debt ceiling suspension ends
- April 1: Current “doc fix” patch expires
- May 31: Highway Trust Fund expires
- June 30: Export-Import Bank charter extension ends
- 1: Fiscal Year 2016 begins
Additionally, the U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule this summer on two highly anticipated cases concerning healthcare. These cases, coupled with the Affordable Care Act’s period of open enrollment closing in February and the expiration of the current “doc fix” patch in April, will create several news cycles that Congress could use to gather momentum on healthcare legislation.
While full-scale repeal of the Affordable Care Act is highly unlikely (the House held over 50 repeal votes last year), several “fixes” will certainly be debated during these time frames. Repeal of the medical device tax is high on many members’ lists, but without a designated “pay for” to offset the estimated $30 billion loss to the Treasury over 10 years, its final fate is uncertain. Of course, a presidential veto looms large over any Republican calculation.
Is 2014 over yet?
It is unlikely that the 114th Congress will suddenly become more popular or more productive than its predecessor. Very few Congressional districts produce competitive elections between the parties. For instance, only 22 House races were decided by a margin of 5 percent or less; 14 of those races were won by Democratic candidates, while eight were won by Republican candidates.
Without a thriving marketplace of ideas, Congress tends to rely on the tried and true –often with predictable results. Some observers suggest that because so few districts produce competitive races, change is unlikely until districts are redrawn following the 2020 census. The Senate, of course, is different, but with 2016 approaching, several of its members will soon wake up one morning, look in the mirror, and see a potential president. The Senate floor will then become their platform and little else.
What should be expected of the 1st Session of the 114th Congress? Perhaps not so much.
Curtis Rooney is president of the Healthcare Supply Chain Association, www.supplychainassociation.org.