April 12, 2021 – Extra tissue boxes and hand sanitizer were the only visible signs that something had changed. Rose, a tenured Professor in the College of Engineering at the University of Michigan, led a February 2020 meeting about an upcoming student project. Unspoken anxiety hung heavily in the air as reports from California raised fears of a novel coronavirus.
Rose’s cell phone buzzed ominously. Usually, she would ignore the interruption out of respect for those with her in the conference room. A sense of foreboding this time convinced her otherwise. You might not have noticed her hand tremble when she pressed the button to open the text message from Phillip, a soon-to-be-graduating senior. Rose’s heart sank, and at that precise moment, the pandemic’s fury hit home.
Phillip’s parents had called him just hours earlier from twelve time zones across the globe, begging him to come home before his government or ours banned international travel. Phillip’s text alerted Rose that he was leaving Ann Arbor immediately and for good.
Your senior college year plays havoc with your emotions in normal times – Achievement. New Opportunities. Freedom. Uncertainty. Goodbyes. In most years, students and faculty have a full academic year to process these emotions. Rituals smooth the raw edges.
The novel coronavirus robbed Phillip and 6,000 of his fellow University of Michigan graduating seniors of these rituals.
Rose leaped from her chair and sprinted down the hall. After catching Phillip in the stairwell, their tears served as a poor substitute for the rituals that should have come later. Graduation ceremonies, farewell celebrations, and long, heartfelt goodbyes among students and faculty that four short years had turned from nervous strangers to close confidants and friends. Rituals lost.
Like campuses, businesses, and organizations across the country, the University plans on resuming “normal” operations as soon as this Fall. Ryan, a rising junior, registered this week for the Fall semester, encouraged that all of his classes meet in person. Campus vaccine sites opened appointments to students beginning last week. University Administration announced plans to return to everyday student life by the Fall Semester.
Most classes would meet in person, residence halls would open at 80% capacity, and in-person dining would resume. Most symbolically (and, most welcome to this author), Michigan Stadium – the 110,000-seat Big House – would welcome back diehard students and alumni.
All of this depends on the success of our efforts to drive down Covid-19 infections. For the United States, these efforts seem stuck in neutral. Meanwhile, Michigan ran over a B.1.1.7 variant pothole and punctured a tire.
New infection rates for the U.S. plummeted from early January through mid-March. By March 16th, new cases had fallen to a five-month low. Then, variants drove new cases 20% higher in the ensuing two weeks. Fortunately, they have barely changed during April, as the vaccines and the variants play to a draw.
Michigan has not been as fortunate. New cases soared 700% in less than two months. The state’s current new case rate is the highest among all states and is 70% higher than second-place New Jersey. It’s the only state where more than one-in-ten presumed Covid-19 cases are confirmed positive – in fact, its rate is three times the national average.
On the surface, Michigan’s experience is counterintuitive. Experts applauded Governor Gretchen Witmer for imposing some of the tightest restrictions nationally on restaurants, bars, and public gatherings. However, the state lagged in getting its vaccination effort rolling. After emphasizing first responders, teachers, and senior citizens, Michigan did not open appointments to younger adults until last week. Meanwhile, infections spiked among unvaccinated persons under 60 years old.
Paradoxically, Michigan may be suffering from its earlier success. Its mitigation efforts meant that relatively fewer people were infected earlier in the pandemic. Even as of today, only nine states have fewer known Covid-19 cases per capita. Tragically, the mitigation efforts rendered Michigan a “target-rich” environment on which the variants could prey.
Should the University of Michigan, as well as the U.S. as a whole, temper the optimism for returning to normal operations any time soon? Perhaps not.
Michigan’s current case surge is the third the state has suffered during the pandemic: in March 2020, again in November, and the current one. The first two surges peaked when new cases were just lower than they are today. Both surges turned on a dime, with new cases plunging by more than half within three to six weeks – and without the benefit of vaccines.
One of the most widely followed Covid-19 models, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), estimates that Michigan’s latest surge peaked last Thursday.
IHME’s model, last updated on April 9th, projects new cases to plunge 70% by the end of April and another 90% in May. By May 31st, Michigan could see fewer cases than any time since February 2nd, 2020, when Covid-19 was largely unknown.
IHME’s model paints a similarly optimistic picture for the U.S. New cases peaked on March 29th and will be cut in half by the end of April. In May, new cases fall another 70% and settle at a pace unseen since February 2020.
A robust vaccination process is driving this optimistic view of sharply falling cases. After vaccinating a near-record and nearly 4 million people on Thursday, the U.S. shattered its single-day record with 4.6 million doses on Friday. Almost 80% of senior citizens have been jabbed already – remarkable given earlier concerns about vaccine resistance – and more than 60% are fully vaccinated. Forty-five percent of adults have received at least one jab, and more than one in four have received either two Moderna or Pfizer doses or the single-shot Johnson and Johnson vaccine.
Vaccination rates in the U.S. exceed the worldwide average by nearly sixfold and are more than double the European Union’s rate. By comparison, the U.S. lags the United Kingdom by almost 40% and Israel by almost 80%. Both countries have witnessed sharply falling case rates, almost in lockstep with their rising vaccination rates.
One area where the U.S. is reaping benefits from vaccinating the elderly and at-risk persons first: deaths reported with Covid-19 declined each of the last ten weeks. During this span, the daily death toll fell 80% and is now at a six-month low.
Ryan, being from out-of-state, already took advantage of a vaccination opportunity near his home in the Southeast. Although he felt no personal risk of a Covid-19 infection, he viewed getting vaccinated as “what I could do to bring back a sense of normalcy to campus.” Professor Rose and fellow student Linda sense that most students will be inclined to get vaccinated for the same reason as Ryan.
Ryan longs for the energy on campus and in the surrounding City of Ann Arbor. On the go by nature, he is already planning to recommit to campus clubs, attend football and hockey games, and re-engage with professors and fellow students. Rituals regained.
As with all great leaders, Professor Rose understands what Zoom cannot reproduce. Zoom compromises her ability to interpret the exceptional student’s body language, signaling that he didn’t understand her last instruction. It doesn’t allow the new student to turn to a classmate in the hall for friendly assistance acclimating to campus life. It cannot replicate the impromptu exchange on the Diag or at Starbucks, through which students, just like employees, gain their sense of home and belonging. Rituals lost.
Dr. Rose related the story of recently re-engaging with students in small, outdoor clusters. Her voice swelled with glee as she retold of two students – one a young Caucasian man born and raised in the U.S., the other a promising undergraduate from the Mideast – spent another twenty minutes together exchanging ideas and laughter after she had departed. Cultures mesh, strengthened by understanding, respect, and shared experience. Rituals regained.
Linda, an in-state freshman, expresses her remorse for the lost rituals. She spent her first semester getting acclimated, learning about her new surroundings, finding campus clubs that met her interests, and meeting new friends from across the world. Her clubs have not met for more than a year, and Linda laments the loss of friendships. She fears that virtual learning and communication have taken a toll on acclimation, motivation, and education. Rituals Lost.
Linda is thrilled to return to campus in the Fall, “a new chapter” for her. It’s “an opportunity to be a freshman again”, despite her sophomore standing academically. She has not decided whether she and her friends would return to the dorm, the prototypical freshman melting pot, or seek an off-campus apartment.
Either way, she expects a better learning environment, both in and outside the classroom, than her home provided over the last semester-and-a-half. Linda is looking forward to her first football game at the Big House, when the Wolverines tackle Western Michigan University on September 4th – Rituals regained.
Contributing writer:
Mark A. Van Sumeren, strategic advisor, Medical Devices & Integrated Delivery Networks
Health Industry Advisor LLC, provides a regular report on COVID-19 numbers for the health care industry.
For more information, or to sign up for the report, contact Mark at Mark.VanSumeren@HealthIndustryAdvisor.com; or visit www.HealthIndustryAdvisor.com.