November 15, 2021 – Last week we wrote of the possibility of the United States being at an inflection point, with cases poised to start rising again. This week’s experience produced somewhat mixed outcomes. We still could see rising cases through the end of the year. However, the impact has been mild thus far, and we are in a far better position than we were a year ago.
Reported cases increased last week, something we had not experienced consistently since early September. Cases are spiking in the Midwest and Mountain states while plunging elsewhere -particularly in the Southeast.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) predicts this upswing will continue for the next two months.
However, estimated infections fell week-over-week according to a model published by public health experts from Harvard, Stanford, and Yale. Also, an ensemble forecast from several academic and research organizations counters the IHME forecast, predicting modest declines in new cases over each of the next few weeks.
Encouragingly, positive Covid tests continue to hover around the 5% rate suggested by public health experts. This low rate indicates that surveillance remains relatively strong. Continuing a trend that started at the beginning of September, fewer Covid patients were hospitalized last week than the prior week. Covid patients occupy only one of every eight beds nationwide, down from one-in-four two months ago.
However, hospitals admitted more Covid patients at the end of last week than earlier in the week. While the increase was modest, it broke the pattern of declining admissions seen since early September.
Flu visits are raising concerns lately too. After falling for several weeks, visits are now rising. Most concerning, the current rate is tracking with the rate posted during the 2019/20 season. That season proved to be the third worst in the past 15 years.
Nevertheless, we are in a vastly better place than a year ago. Much credit for this improvement goes to the extensive vaccination effort.
As of yesterday, nearly 200 million Americans have received two doses of the Moderna or Pfizer vaccines or one poke of the Janssen one. The age group most vulnerable to severe Covid, the elderly, are essentially fully vaccinated (99+%). Thirty percent have already received a booster.
Vaccines have only recently become available to 5-to-11-year-olds. Perhaps it should not surprise us that this age group reports the highest case rate among those eligible for the vaccines. Encouragingly, parents are getting these children vaccinated – at a pace now of about 150,000 daily. Already, 5% of this age group has received one vaccine dose.
We suffered the worst Covid infection surge of the entire pandemic last Fall. The reported case rate surged seven-fold (700%) from the end of September to mid-January. Compared to where we are today, on this date last Fall:
- Cases were 2x higher. These cases would rise for another two months, nearly doubling in that time. In contrast, IHME expects cases will increase 30% in the next two months
- Cases were increasing by 40% each day a year ago. In the past week, reported cases increased between 0% and 8% each day.
- The test-positive rate was nearly twice as high a year ago as today
- Covid patients occupied one of every five beds nationally versus one in eight now
- Deaths with Covid each day were 13% higher a year ago and had been rising for a month (and would continue to rise for another two months). Deaths have been declining each day for seven weeks now.
Contributing writer:
Mark A. Van Sumeren, strategic advisor, Medical Devices & Integrated Delivery Networks
Health Industry Advisor LLC, provides a regular report on COVID-19 numbers for the health care industry.
For more information, or to sign up for the report, contact Mark at Mark.VanSumeren@HealthIndustryAdvisor.com; or visit www.HealthIndustryAdvisor.com.