June 14, 2021 – A tradeoff between the Delta variant and uneven vaccination efforts globally is shifting the battleground in the COVID pandemic.
A month ago, all eyes were on India and its 1.4 billion people. Infections had been surging for three months. Yet, only one of every ten people had received even a single jab of a vaccine. So, despite the raging infections, large swaths of the population remained at risk.
Since then, vaccination rates have jumped 50% yet remain only marginally higher than the worldwide average. More importantly, however, infection rates plummeted 80%.
More recently, South America has been in the eye of the COVID storm. Of the 12 countries worldwide with the highest infection rates last week, seven were South American. In descending order, these seven were Uruguay, Argentina, Columbia, Suriname, French Guiana, Paraguay, and Chile. Brazil ranked 15th and Bolivia 18th.
Tragically, the South American continent also suffered a higher death rate last week than observed elsewhere. Paraguay, Uruguay, Argentina, Suriname, and Columbia lost more citizens per capita to COVID last week than any other country. Peru and Brazil ranked seventh and eighth, respectively.
However, there are signs that the intensity of the virus is shifting. Peru, French Guiana, Argentina, and Uruguay each reported double-digit declines in week-over-week infection rates. Overall, rates declined 2% across South America.
Infection rates fell in Asia, Europe, and North America, in addition to South America. Bucking this trend, rates increased 15% in Oceania and an eye-popping 40% in Africa. Sixteen countries worldwide saw infections double week-over-week. Another 16 reported 50% increases. Of these, nine African countries experienced a doubling in cases, and another eight reported 50% increases.
Although rates remain low across most of Africa (tiny Seychelles being a notable exception), the risk of an infection surge is concerning. The continent trails the rest of the world in rolling out COVID vaccines. Only 3% of the population has received even a single dose, a rate one-fourth of the global average.
How Goes the United States?
A robust vaccination effort in the United States has driven infection rates to their lowest level in 14 months. However, jabs have slowed sharply, leaving millions of younger adults unprotected. Children too are unprotected, yet the evidence suggests a low risk of infections at these ages.
Infection rates in the United States dropped to only 5% of the level posted in early January. Only two states, Colorado, and Wyoming reported 10 or more cases per 100,000 people last week. Thirty-three states, including California, New Jersey, New York, and Texas, detected fewer than five new daily cases per 100,000.
An ensemble forecast predicts that U.S. cases will continue falling through Independence Day. By then, new cases may be only half what they were last week. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) extends its projection now to October 1. In IHME’s latest model, new cases continue dropping through the summer and remain sharply lower than we see today.
Still, the risk remains high as millions of Americans remain unvaccinated. Twenty-eight states have yet to reach 50% of the population having received at least one dose. Five states, Arkansas, Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Wyoming are under 40%.
One only needs to look to the United Kingdom to grasp the risk of inadequate vaccinations. Despite posting the twelfth highest vaccination rate globally, the U.K. has witnessed a month-long surge in new infections. Infection rates spiked nearly fivefold in that time. Still, the country ranked only fortieth in the world in infections per capita last week. Further, reports indicate that most infections are among unvaccinated younger adults and are not resulting in a concomitant increase in hospitalizations or deaths.
Contributing writer:
Mark A. Van Sumeren, strategic advisor, Medical Devices & Integrated Delivery Networks
Health Industry Advisor LLC, provides a regular report on COVID-19 numbers for the health care industry.
For more information, or to sign up for the report, contact Mark at Mark.VanSumeren@HealthIndustryAdvisor.com; or visit www.HealthIndustryAdvisor.com.