October 4, 2021 – The Delta variant-induced infection wave continues to wane in the United States. However, despite solid progress, several metrics remain higher than during the pandemic low in June.
Reported cases (7-day average) dropped to a two-month low on Friday. These cases have declined 35% from their peak on September 2. Still, this rate is nine times higher than it was in mid-June.
Estimated infections showed even more significant progress, according to a model from a group of Harvard, Stanford, and Yale public health scientists: These infections reached a nine-week low on Friday. Daily infections are 55% lower than they were at the end of August. Yet, they are four times higher than at the pandemic low on June 22.
Covid admissions to hospitals plunged 17% in the past week and 36% from the Delta-peak in late August. However, these admissions remain four times higher than the pandemic-low set in late June.
Covid patient days followed a similar pattern to admissions:
- Census dropped 12.5% in the last week and 25% since peaking on September 4.
- The current census is six times higher than its pandemic low, posted on June 28.
Deaths are also declining, although these remain tragically high.
- There were 11% fewer deaths last week than the prior week.
- Since peaking in mid-September, deaths have now receded 14.5%.
- Seven times as many deaths occurred last week than during the pandemic low on July 8.
The encouraging news: with each of these metrics, the current rate is about half (or, lower) what it was during the pandemic peak in January of this year.
Progress is not uniform across the country.
Although cases are declining in 38 states, 12 are seeing more cases week-over-week.
Alaska is experiencing the most significant challenge: it has both the highest infection rate and the most significant week-over-week spike in this rate. Conversely, Montana, West Virginia, and Wyoming have the second, third, and fourth highest infection rates, but cases are dropping in each state.
The graphic below illustrates each state’s current infection rate and its week-over-week change in this rate:
Vaccinations provide us with substantial, although not complete, protection against the virus. Booster shots became available last week to senior citizens and persons with underlying health conditions. Interestingly, almost as many senior citizens have received a booster shot (5.5%) as those remaining unvaccinated (5.9%). Already in the first few days, nearly five million people took advantage of the additional protection.
Of course, senior citizens have eagerly participated in the vaccine effort, more so than younger folks. The gap is narrowing slightly, with the pace of vaccinations now fastest for eligible teenagers.
Vaccinations have lagged among ethnic and minority populations, with blacks being the most hesitant of all groups. Barely 30% of black Americans are fully vaccinated at this time. Hispanics are somewhat more willing, yet fewer than 40% of Hispanics are fully vaccinated.
We documented a curious but not unexpected inverse correlation between vaccination rates and the percentage of persons infected at some point by Covid (“infection prevalence”). Thirty states lag the U.S. average in vaccination rates. All except three of these exceed the national average infection prevalence. Similarly, 20 states exceed the national average in vaccinations; all except three of these have experienced infection rates below the national average.
The states bucking the trend: Illinois, Michigan, and Ohio are lagging in vaccinations but have lower than average infection prevalence. Florida, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin exceed the national average in vaccinations yet have experienced relatively high infections.
Thus far, Covid has taken us on a roller coaster ride in 2021. A strong vaccination effort took us from pandemic-long highs in the metrics pictured above from January through mid-June. Then, the Delta variant emerged. From mid-June to early September, these metrics spiked again.
For whatever reason, the Delta wave crested in early September, dropping each of these metrics. With the new booster shots and the possibility of childhood vaccinations in a month or so, further improvements are possible. That is, so long as another more virulent variant does not emerge.
Contributing writer:
Mark A. Van Sumeren, strategic advisor, Medical Devices & Integrated Delivery Networks
Health Industry Advisor LLC, provides a regular report on COVID-19 numbers for the health care industry.
For more information, or to sign up for the report, contact Mark at Mark.VanSumeren@HealthIndustryAdvisor.com; or visit www.HealthIndustryAdvisor.com.